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Is kindergarten in Australia worth investing?

我们华人移民澳洲,除了怡人的环境之外,莫过于当地优良的教育系统。身边不少近年来澳洲居住的朋友们都已经度过了头几年的过渡期,不再问买房、汇款的事情了。给出生没多久的孩子找合适的幼儿园,成了大家的头等大事。很多华人会去买学区房,想到了小学,中学,甚至是大学,却把幼儿园给拉下了。等到回头去找附近好的幼儿园,才发现人家排队都要一年以上,愁坏了不少年轻的家长,因为孩子可不能输在起跑线上。

回想起来,在澳大利亚这样人口稀少的国家,上幼儿园竟然出现了和国内一样,开始需要抢学位了。那么,在当地投资一家幼儿园,有前景么?

答案是有的。

根据IBIS统计研究表明,澳洲幼儿看护行业是价值一个124亿澳元的巨大市场,2016-2017年的利润年增长达到14.3%。相比只有区区0.5%(2016年第三季度)的澳洲GDP增长率来看,幼儿看护行业可以说是以光速在发展。

一、幼儿看护行业在澳洲如此火爆,主要有以下四点原因:

  1. 政府资金支持

幼儿看护专业长期以往是澳大利亚的移民专业,背后的原因是因为幼儿教师的稀缺。为鼓励更多民间资本进入此行业,澳洲政府目前推行两种专项资金来支持幼儿看护行业,分别是幼儿看护福利CCB (Child Care Benefit) 和幼儿看护回扣CCR(Child Care Rebate),澳洲99.6%的家庭都可以获得政府这两类福利资金。就目前的政府预算来看,这两项专项资金的支持力度将进一步加大。

  1. 女性重返工作岗位

随着企业社会责任感的持续增强,和现代女性对职业的诉求进一步提高,澳大利亚的普通女性就业率和怀孕女性的就业率,已经经历了20年的持续增长。这种增长为幼儿园行业的长期发展指明了方向。因为更高的女性就业率意味着将会有更多家庭选择委托幼儿园来看护自己的孩子,而不是有一方放弃工作来照顾孩子。2016-2017年的预测表明,女性就业率将持续增加,进一步推高幼儿园的需求。

  1. 儿童人口快速增长

尽管澳洲幼儿园行业已经预见了人口增长将带来入院人数的压力,提前进行了产业布局。然而,人口的增长速度超出了政府的预期,很多孩子面临无园可入的局面,而这种情况在悉尼尤甚。澳洲政府的目标是使学龄前儿童每周至少上15个小时的幼儿园。新南威尔士州只有74%的四岁儿童上幼儿园,而全澳的入园率为95%。澳洲生产力委员会表示,全国的幼儿园中有85%的儿童能达到每周上15个小时幼儿园的标准,而新南威尔士州则只有60%。

  1. 家庭可支配收入增长

澳大利亚幼儿园的费用十分高昂,每天的费用通常在70 – 80澳元之间,私立幼儿园可以达到200澳元每天,更有一些高端幼儿园,每小时的费用即达到80澳元。尽管如此,随着更多女性参与工作,澳洲单位家庭的收入整体得到有效提升,更多的家庭可以负担的起幼儿园的费用。2016至2017年期间,家庭的可随意支配收入将得到提高。

二、行业制约因素

然而,在幼儿园如此紧缺的情况下,幼儿园的增长速率仍然较低,主要是由于此行业门槛较高。澳大利亚拥有非常严格的行业规律制度。幼儿看护行业主要受到幼儿园国家质量框架NQF(National Qualify Framework)的监管。此框架是专门为保障澳大利亚幼儿园可以持续保持高水平的幼儿教学质量。

在NQF框架的推动下,2014年起至少一半以上的日间儿童看护中心(Long day care center)的员工需要至少获得早期教育三级证书(Certificate III)。随着幼儿园工作人员的教育水平持续提升,所需支付的工资也在稳步上升。在2016至2017年,幼儿园幼师的工作预计会增长11%,而这将消耗掉约67%的收入增长。持续提升的行业监管力度和不断增长人员工资是大家考虑是否投资幼儿园的最大因素。

三、行业竞争格局

澳洲的幼儿看护行业集中度非常低,四大幼儿园集团及无数小型幼儿园组成了整个124亿澳元的市场。其中,四大幼儿园集团的总体收入尚不到全国市场的20%。

根据澳大利亚儿童教育及看护质量委员会(ACECQA)的统计,截止到2016年第一季度,有83% 的幼儿园运营商只拥有1 家幼儿园,有16% 的运营商拥有2 家至24 家幼儿园,而拥有25家以上的大型联系幼儿园运营集团,则只占总数的1%。

大约有半数的幼儿园都是为非赢利性幼儿园,这也解释了为什么澳洲幼儿园市场是如此的分散。其中最大的非盈利性运营商,好起点早期教育公司(Goodstart Early Learning)接管了倒闭的前澳洲最大幼儿园运营商ABC Learning共计678家幼儿园后,目前约共拥有全国7.2%的市场。

不过,盈利性的幼儿园运营商也在飞速吞噬市场份额,G8 教育(G8 Education)和Affinity 教育(Affinity Education)均为澳大利亚证券交易所的上市公司,他们不断地通过收购兼并区域性幼儿园进行扩张。G8 教育是当前澳大利亚最大的私营幼儿园运营商,占据澳洲全国约7.8%的市场。自2010年至2015年期间,G8教育已经收购了415家私营幼儿园。

四、利润及成本构成

由于幼儿看护行业拥有多种形态,如全日园、半日园、家庭园等,而运营的性质不同,每家幼儿园的利润水平相差很大。就G8 教育为例,其经营利润率可以达到22.7%,而非盈利性质的好起点早期教育,其2014 – 2015 年度的利润率仅为1.9%。

不过,就整体行业来看,平均的利润可以达到约10%。其中人员工资的成本超过50%以上。相比之下,除了水电等固定费用之外,房租的费用只占3.4%,这个水平可能会比大部分人想象的都来的要低。

五、投资幼儿园到底是否值得?

幼儿看护在澳洲一直被视为一个家庭单位的刚性需求,而且澳洲人口也正在面临一个高速的上升期。相比其他类行业,幼儿园教育是一个风险较低、竞争较少的行业。不仅收入稳定,而且也更不容易受到科技更新换代,而面临的更新成本。在可预见的未来里,幼儿园都将是一个不错的投资选择。

不过幼儿园行业已经经历了最快增长的阶段,根据IBIS的预测,在2016 – 2017年经历12%的高增长后,行业未来5年的平均增长率将保持在5.8%的水平。

就近期来看,幼儿园行业当前面临的最大不确定因素,就是联邦政府正在讨论推进的幼儿看护行业改革政策。这项改革建议采用单一幼儿看护补贴CCS(Single Child Care Subsidy), 如果这项改革得以通过,新的政策将会在2018年得以实施,并将为澳洲的幼儿看护行业带来巨大变革,单一幼儿看护补贴CCS将取代现有的幼儿看护福利CCB (Child Care Benefit) 和幼儿看护回扣CCR(Child Care Rebate)。幼儿园的运营商将会直接获得政府补贴,利润水平和增长率也将会超过预期。

*数据来源:IBIS World

Boom time for corporate childcare in Australia

Boom time for corporate childcare in Australia

Parents paying up to $190 a day for childcare places are propping up $1 billion in profits for private childcare operators and their landlords, with questions being asked about who is really benefiting from billions in taxpayer subsidies for the sector.

Eight years after the spectacular collapse of Eddy Groves’ ABC learning, once the biggest childcare provider in the world, corporate interests have returned to the sector. Research analysts rate childcare “an investment-grade asset”.

The childcare services industry made almost $1 billion in profit last year, or more than one-eighth of what the government put into it in fee subsidies, according to IBISWorld’s July report on the industry. (That figure does not include the property owners’ profits.)

Increasingly childcare is big business, with about half of all childcare services (including out of school hours care and family daycare operations) provided by for-profit businesses, according to the Productivity Commission.

But in long day care, where 660,000 kids are, it’s more like two-thirds delivered on a for-profit basis. That’s where most corporate activity is happening, and where the demand is.

There has been huge growth to catch up with demand for long daycare places – in 2010 there were about 5900 long daycare centres nationally, according to Colliers International, but now there are well over 6800, according to the regulator ACECQA.

This growth has included several companies making big profits from the sector, either as operators of centres or as centre landlords (see “The companies cashing in” below).

At what cost?

But with some parents struggling to get a place and others paying upwards of $190 a day in inner-city areas, costs to the taxpayer of a staggering $10 billion a year in parent subsidies, and childcare workers among the lowest paid in the country, exactly who is winning from our childcare system?

 

Labor’s early childhood spokeswoman Kate Ellis is worried.

“Services are established where they are profitable – not necessarily where vulnerable children need access to quality early education, or where they will be the most affordable and convenient for working parents on lower wages,” she said in a speech at the National Press Club last month.

“Increasingly decisions about early education services in Australia are being made in corporate interests – based on the highest price the market can bear – not community need.”

G8 Education declined an invitation to comment on how it balanced the needs of children in its care with the imperative to make money for its shareholders.

 

Early childhood advocates say the picture is complicated and there are for-profit providers who do genuinely work in the best interests of the children in their care.Samantha Page from advocacy group Early Childhood Australia said: “If they are committed to high-quality service delivery, early learning outcomes for children and supporting families to balance parenting with workforce participation then they are likely to run services that benefit children.”However if they are focused on cost cutting to increase profit margins, that is not good for the children attending those services.”

How it works for familiesUnder the current system, eligible families can claim the income-tested Child Care Benefit, paid directly to care providers to reduce fees for families. In addition all families, no matter their income level, can claim the Child Care Rebate, which covers up to 50 per cent of out of pocket childcare costs, up to $7500 per child, per year.

In 2016-17, the federal government expects to spend about $8.2 billion on childcare fee assistance – that’s $4.2 billion for the childcare benefit and about $3.9 billion for the childcare rebate.

The government’s childcare reform plan (the “Jobs for Families” package) to simplify the childcare subsidy system to one payment, cap hourly fee subsidies and inject an additional $3 billion in targeted childcare funding for lower income families has stalled in the Senate.

The government plans to spend $10 billion each year on childcare support from mid-2018. For comparison, total government spending on primary and high schools in Australia in 2015 was $43 billion.

The Education Minister Simon Birmingham would not comment on corporate profits in the sector.

But the minister said the Coalition had brought childcare price increases down to about 5.2 per cent in the year to September 2015, “well below the 10-year September quarter average of 6.7 per cent and 7.4 per cent during Labor’s last term in office”.

“The Turnbull government’s priority in childcare is assistance that helps families and is deliberately targeted at families on the lowest incomes and those working the most hours,” he said.

The companies cashing in

The listed company G8 Education Limited is the largest operator with a 7.9 per cent market share, according to IBISWorld, followed by Goodstart Early Learning, the not-for-profit which took over ABC Learning’s centres and now has a 7.2 per cent share.

G8 Education, which badges its 489 daycare centres with 20 “local” brands, reported a profit of $88.6 million in 2015-16 after an aggressive acquisition binge of nearly 300 centres over two years.

The Folkestone Education Trust, which owns 393 early learning properties (including some in New Zealand) made $106.8 million net profit in 2015-16, up 20.5 per cent on the previous year. Folkestone’s annual report says growth was partly driven through rent hikes of 5.5 per cent. “This growth is further supported by the continued rise in daily fees per place,” the report said.

The ASX 300-listed property group Arena REIT, which owns 189 childcare properties in Australia, reported a $25.6 million profit in 2015, up 16 per cent on the previous year. It makes rental income of between $1400 and $3900 per licensed childcare place, according to its annual report.

Property developer Meriton has also spied opportunity, announcing it will retain ownership of the childcare centres it builds as part of its residential developments, with at least 26 built or on the way.

And private equity has moved into the sector in the past 18 months, buying up groups with about 100-150 centres, including Affinity and Guardian Early Learning Group.

Analysts are predicting a lot more consolidation, given the top four providers account for just a quarter of the market, with demographic growth driving demand and government subsidies pouring in. The five-year outlook is bullish for investors, with analysts anticipating 5.8 per cent annual growth in the sector.

The alternatives

Schools are not permitted to run on a for-profit basis, and many early childhood advocates argue privately that childcare should be the same. But unscrambling that egg would be politically difficult.

Jo Briskey, from parent advocacy group The Parenthood, said the priority in the early learning sector should be kids getting access to quality care, parents getting the support they need and educators getting paid properly.

“If we treated early learning like we do our school system,” she said, “we wouldn’t see ever increasing fees for families, we wouldn’t see huge waiting lists, we wouldn’t see high turnover in educators because they’d be being paid properly like teachers and we’d see a more effective and efficient use of government funds seen as an investment in education.”

Labor is in the process of consulting parents and the sector to formulate its new childcare policy. Ms Ellis says the current system needs wholesale reform.